What the numbers actually mean

APR stands for Adjusted Possession Rating. Net APR is the overall team-strength metric, while Off APR and Def APR show the offensive and defensive components. In-season Net APR, Off APR and Def APR are possession-efficiency ratings built from offensive points per resolved possession and solved recursively across the FBS opponent network. A team’s own rating is never blended with a preseason rating, recruiting input or conference-strength term. During the first three site weeks only, the opponent-strength adjustment is stabilized with a tapered prior-season opponent baseline; that influence is 50% through Week 2, 25% in Week 3 and 0% from Week 4 onward. A small zero-centered ridge toward the current-season FBS average also stabilizes sparse early-season samples.

Net APR is the primary opponent-adjusted team-strength rating. It is fit from offensive drive points per resolved possession rather than directly from final scoring margin. Every completed FBS-vs-FBS team-game is solved simultaneously, so an efficiency result against a strong opponent is treated differently from the same result against a weak opponent. Net APR equals Off APR plus Def APR, with both components expressed on a points-per-10-resolved-possessions scale. EPA, Success Rate, Explosiveness and other play-level measures remain separate advanced and exploratory statistics; they do not currently determine Net APR. ASM is intentionally different: it is an opponent-adjusted scoring-margin résumé lens with each game’s margin capped at 28 points. The disagreement between the possession-efficiency rating and ASM can therefore provide useful context without implying that the two metrics measure the same thing.